The Oil Dispute between Sudan and South Sudan ... some analysis

I received this information today about the current oil crisis between the North and the South. Thought it was a rather interesting summary of what's going on.


Current Issues 

There is a major deadlock between Government of Sudan (GoS) and Government of South Sudan (GoSS) over oil revenue sharing (fees, exports and pipeline).  Both governments met a few days ago in Addis Ababa at a meeting chaired by the African Union High Level Panel (AUHLP) to address this deadlock but a negotiated settlement remains elusive. Both sides have been escalating the situation, taking unilateral decisions and actions to guarantee their access to, and control of oil revenue.

GoS has been accused of seizing oil worth $185m and has prevented the sale of almost $630m (preventing eight ships from either docking or leaving Port Sudan), and requesting a high transit fee of $32.2 per barrel - which is 300% over the international rate, estimated at 0.7 cents. (Jacqui: RIDICULOUS). 

GoS has also been responsible for blocking trade with South Sudan and has escalated its military campaign in the border area (Jacqui: ie bombing! hence the big problems with refugees in Upper Nile). It is thought that a grab for the oil fields is also on the cards, maybe even utilizing the ‘support’ of  rebel groups within South Sudan e.g. SSIM. 

GoSS in turn has nationalized Sudapet (Sudan State Oil Co.) assets, expelling Sudanese employees without compensation. Sudan apparently derives a high income from this co. On 20^th January, GoSS also announced it would 'switch off' oil supplies in South Sudan, which is seen as an effort by GoSS to assure its independence and also force the acquiescence of Sudan; two of three oil fields are already being closed. Apparently, closing an oil field is complicated and if incorrectly or partially done will threaten future productive capacity of existing pipelines. AU mediators have advised that there be a 30 day transitional period; to ensure some oil flow but still buy time to come to an economically beneficial settlement.  

Games of brinkmanship are not uncommon for Sudan - South Sudan relations, but this time the consequences are severe enough to tilt both towards some sort of state collapse.

In South Sudan this means ….  

• escalation of inter-state military action or outright war; 
• stoking internal civil unrest and escalating violent competition between rebel groups and state;  
• hyper-inflation, deepening poverty and worsening the humanitarian situation; and  
• retardation of overall recovery and development.   

The Multi-Donor Trust Fund runs out soon and infrastructure projects in South Sudan may not be completed. New construction (i.e. much-needed roads!) would be compromised, as GoSS needs to divert funds to maintain core functions – administration, military spend etc.  Donors will also need to rethink the transition of aid funding from donors to GoSS.  

GoSS is 98% reliant on oil revenues. So if it longer has access to oil, how will it keep the economy going? GoSS has recognized that it needs to drastically its budget and is presently preparing an austerity package. Government 2011 budget is rumoured to be SSP 4.2bn. GoSS seems confident that even with drastic budget cuts that it can maintain core functions. Some international donors are a little more skeptical.  

In the absence of oil revenues GoSS may be able to utilize the following funds: 

Foreign Exchange: It is estimated that this is anything from $900m-$1,800m if mobilised this means that the economy at current spend levels can be maintained for 3-6 months, no more.   

Non-Oil Revenue: this amounts to something in the region of $100m.  This is not enough to even shore up the economy in the short run that is mostly salary (military and civil) spend. 

Request large loans against future oil revenue: Some donors are responding to this; e.g. Norway and maybe the Chinese (but the latter only derive 5% of their oil from South Sudan so not clear how much risk they are willing to take). While some offers are on the table no-one has yet committed funds. The UK Government has unofficially indicated that it will not provide any more funds other than that already committed to South Sudan. It is also expecting lower returns on existing development spend which will very unpalatable to the British taxpayer. 

Options for a South Sudan pipeline: the Goverment of South Sudan has indicated a strong interest in having its own oil infrastructure - refineries, pipelines etc. This however is immensely costly and cannot not be put in place quickly. Options for these pipelines are Juba- Kenya (Lamu Port), Juba – Uganda- Kenya, Juba- Kenya- Ethiopia, and Juba- Ethiopia- Djibouti.  

On 24th January, GoSS and Kenya signed an MoU to start building a pipeline to Kenya, so it appears this will be the option of choice. Juba-Lamu is the shortest route but will take almost 2 years to complete (above the 10 months that the Ministry of MEM projects) and cost anything in the region of $1.5bn - $4bn. A lot of new refineries will need to be built in South Sudan to manage different blends of oil (Dar and Nile), new infrastructure in Lamu and the pipeline has to navigate the Rift Valley on its route to Lamu. Two years of infrastructural development means that oil will for the time being still keep flowing north ... with little resolution of the problems.


Sources: Briefing of EU Economic Adviser to JDT, Email correspondence with ECOS Rep, and Global Witness report in Sudan Tribune 21 Jan.

Press Release: Doubling in number of people affected by Jonglei violence

Thought this was in interesting insight into the annual tribal conflict within South Sudan, and the subsequent impact on people who become displaced. It also mentions the border conflicts too - which results in a huge number of refugees.

Issued by the UN Office of the Resident and Humanitarian Co-ordinator in South Sudan on 20th January 2012.

NUMBER OF PEOPLE AFFECTED BY JONGLEI VIOLENCE HAS DOUBLED:  

UN HUMANITARIAN COORDINATOR FOR SOUTH SUDAN

(Juba, 20 January 2012): United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator for South Sudan, Ms. Lise Grande, confirmed today that more than 120,000 people affected by the recent violence in Jonglei State may need emergency assistance.

“The violence in Jonglei hasn’t stopped,” Ms. Grande said. “Only two weeks ago we launched a massive emergency operation to help 60,000 people. As a result of recent attacks, we now estimate that double that number will need help.”

Fighting between Lou Nuer and Murle communities escalated sharply in late December, causing an estimated tens of thousands people to flee their homes in Pibor County and resulting in casualties, destruction of property and livelihoods. Subsequently, starting 28 December, retaliatory attacks were launched on communities in Akobo, Uror and Duk counties. The most recent attack took place on 16 January, when 80 people were reportedly killed and 300 houses burnt in Duk Padiet in Duk County, according to local authorities.

Humanitarian assistance is being provided in violence-affected areas and assessments are continuing. A humanitarian response and coordination hub has been established in Pibor town and 15 humanitarian organisations are present on the ground, working to repair water points and provide food, household items, emergency education, nutrition, protection and medical assistance. Assistance is also being provided in Gumuruk, Likuangole, Boma, and Walgak, and other villages will receive aid soon.

The most recent spike in inter-communal violence has compounded an already difficult humanitarian situation in South Sudan. Before the crisis in Jonglei, partners were over-stretched, and are now supporting 30 simultaneous emergency operations. In 2011, more than 350,000 people were forced from their homes, significantly more than in 2010. Since mid-2011, tensions on the border with Sudan have also escalated, triggering fresh displacements. In May 2011, violence erupted in Abyei, displacing 110,000 people into Agok and South Sudan where they remain displaced.

In addition, ongoing conflict in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states in Sudan has caused approximately 80,000 people to flee into South Sudan since June 2011. Hundreds of new refugees continue to arrive every week.

Ms. Grande emphasized that “operations in South Sudan are some of the most difficult and expensive in the region due to the combination of poor infrastructure and limited accessibility. It’s a race against time every year to ensure that life-saving supplies are purchased and pre-positioned before the rains arrive. These attacks have occurred at the beginning of the dry season when stocks are at their lowest.”

“We are extremely concerned that humanitarian facilities, including health centres, are being targeted during attacks,” said Ms. Grande. “We call upon all parties to respect the neutrality of humanitarian partners.”

US$763 million is required for the Consolidated Appeal for South Sudan, covering 271 projects among 110 organisations. “It is essential that this year’s appeal is adequately resourced early in 2012 to ensure we meet our commitments to the people of South Sudan during the first critical year of statehood,” Ms. Grande stressed.

* * *

All of this makes me wonder whether anyone is addressing the root causes of these problems - the reasons people are fighting in the first place (inter-tribal issues, cattle raiding, fighting over women, competition for water ...). The retaliatory attacks always, predictably, follow. An eye for an eye.

These problems cause massive headaches for NGOs working in-country who have to drop everything and respond en masse to provide emergency supplies and assistance - which further degrades the sustainability of the longer-term programs that NGOs are doing, not to mention further increasing people's reliance on aid.

There are some agencies doing Disaster Risk Reduction activities - including Oxfam GB - but these are thin on the ground. In a place like South Sudan where there is always an emergency situation going on, it's difficult to have the capacity to both respond to emergencies and work with communities to be prepared for, and minimise the impact of, future ones.

Sigh. The mountain keeps getting taller and steeper every day. One step forward, five hundred back ...

The loooong drive to Loooongechuk

Oxfam GB has a public health program in Upper Nile state, in Maban county - where all this emergency refugee response is also going on. But we also used to work in Longechuk county, and had a base in a town called Udier, not far from the capital of Mathiang. At the end of last year we pulled out of Longechuk to focus on Public Health needs in Maban, both in long-term and emergency programs.


We still have some loose ends to tie up in Longechuk, and so one fine morning I set off with the Public Health Promotion team to go and meet with the Commissioner and Director of Rural Water in Mathiang. The drive is about 4 hours in the dry season.

The landscape is fairly uninteresting, with vast scrubby plains that stretch as far as the eye can see, perfect territory for oil companies such as Petradar to operate their big oil rigs and gas plants. They're dotted around everywhere. But that's only in the parts high enough to not get flooded every year.

Underneath this seemingly dry grassland is a lot of water, even though you don't see it at first glance. But every now and then you catch glimpses of the water there, when it opens up to lilypad-dotted swamps with water birds. Wildlife spotting amongst the dry grassland and scrubby acacia forest was a real highlight. We saw herds of antelope, white-eared Kob, crested cranes, huge flocks of pelicans and maribu storks, a gaggle(?) of running ostrich, nomadic Arab felata and their huge herds of cattle and goats ... all in a day's drive.

 

 

 We also unfortunately came across a small group of guinea fowl, who took on our Landcruiser in a foot race on the red dusty road. Let's just say that we won, though they paid the ultimate price with their lives! Our driver wasn't slowing down for them to get out of the way; and the silly bird that jumped up from the road as the Lancruiser bore down on it slammed right into the windscreen, leaving a huge round spiderweb-like imprint on the driver's side. We ground to a screaming halt, and when the dust cleared, we saw the carnage behind us: no less than 6 poor guinea fowl were strewn across the road. It had scared the hell out of me; I had just started to nod off to sleep. 

But this is South Sudan, and no food goes to waste. We picked up all the feathery little bodies and put them into the back, to be turned into dinner a few hours later. Beats eating the usual beans, rice and greasy meat soup.

A successful day's drive? I guess it depends on whether you're a guinea fowl or not.

CPA day - 9th January

9th January – the seventh anniversary of the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement between Sudan & South Sudan, back in 2005, which brought an end to the longest civil war in Africa’s history. Well ... kind of.

Fast forward to 2012 and anyone here would be loathe to use the word ‘peace’ in either of these countries, which are still experiencing conflict – between themselves, and in the case of the South, within it. South Sudan has recently seen the killing of 2,000 civilians of one tribe by another tribe in Pibor, Unity State, which has been condemned as an act of ethnic cleansing. In December the leader of the rebel group South Sudan Democratic Movement/Army (SSDM/A), George Athor, was assassinated amongst much fighting between his group and the SPLA. There is ongoing bombing and fighting in the border region of Upper Nile (South Sudan) and Blue Nile (Sudan) states, between the SPLA (Sudan People’s Liberation Army) and Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), as well as ongoing fighting in South Kordofan state, all leading to widespread displacement of people into Upper Nile state. There have also been widespread deaths between tribes due to cattle raiding in a number of states, an annual occurrence in South Sudan. And of course, the North continues to attack the South in the volatile border regions, with on-ground clashes and aerial bombings still going on; and rebel groups in the western Sudan region of Darfur trying to bring down the Government.

Peace indeed.

Interestingly, 9^th January was the day that I returned to Upper Nile, where Oxfam has been playing its part in an emergency response for Sudanese refugees.

When Jamam first appeared on the horizon, I didn’t recognise it. The town seemed a lot larger and busier than I remembered, with many new shops having sprung up. There was a big white tent next to our compound, with local trucks, built in the sixties and adorned in all sorts of colourful designs, lined up out the front. Many new houses had appeared around the perimeter, adding to the sprawl of people that had come to Jamam seeking refuge. Further down the road were the unmistakable white tents of a refugee camp with blue UNHCR logos plastered all over them.

And there are people everywhere. Walking on the road, women clad head-to-toe in beautifully-coloured cloth, indicating they come from the Muslim north, poles slung over their shoulders with heavy jerry cans dangling at each end in a delicate balance, couched comfortable in string baskets. Young boys hassle their donkeys to move faster from the carts at the rear, carrying water or grass, always in a hurry.  Older men walk slowly in long white jalabahs, their heads adorned in white Fez hats, chatting quietly in groups. Teenage boys sit by the roadside, selling small goods like sugar, salt and tea.


Further along past the rows of white tents, people have settled in a ramshackle manner on the cracked-mud scorched earth, the product of the recent floods which have now dried, plus the widespread burning of grass that is practiced locally. Groups of women and children huddle under the trees, their belongings hastily arranged around them, cooking their sorghum ugali over crackling fires. The odd heavily-laden bicycle leans up against a tree or stands by the road, the vehicle of choice for carrying personal items for many of the men. The women have had to walk; they carry their items on their heads, their babies on their backs and lead their children along the road. These refugees have yet to be registered by UNHCR and allocated tents and supplies. It's surprisingly chilly here at night, and I can't imagine their children and elderly family members staying warm.


The other side of the road, in the 'old' site where people originally took up residence, is a stark contrast. These more established refugees have built their own houses out of locally sourced wood and grass, some with quite secure, high fences, and constructed their own bathing shelters and latrines. Much fewer of them are living out in the open. But their plight is still as dire, with these people having been here longer, surviving on contaminated water and very little food, and not receiving the assistance of NGOs (apart from the water we've managed to provide them).

UNHCR have still been f*£%ing about trying to decide where the final site for the Jamam refugees should be. In my absence, a new UNHCR site planner had arrived to undertake demarcation on the ‘new’ refugee camp site, and had immediately declared it unfit due to it being a floodplain. Ummm ... thanks, Captain Obvious! Just like the site where refugees are now, having already been signalled as a site contaminated with UXOs, this is something UNHCR already knew. The reason that the local authorities allocated the existing site to the Jamam refugees is because it’s the only one for miles around that DOESN’T flood during the rainy season.

So, the white tents are temporarily housing a small but growing number of refugees, which have recently arrived. They have no clean water nearby; they’re now accessing the same haffir that the ‘original’ influx of refugees was, at their peril. What UNHCR seems to have finally decided is that they will temporarily relocate the refugees near our base to pave the way for mine/UXO clearance on the existing site. Hallelujah! It’s what we’ve been advocating for the whole time. There’s now some clarity around the situation, and because this has finally happened, other humanitarian actors (like us!) can go ahead and do our thing.

Newly arrived refugees have been given these tents by UNHCR to settle in the new site. When Mine Action Group arrive to begin preparations for clearing the existing site of UXOs, they will be moved temporarily while clearance occurs, then moved back their houses. Only problem is, the clearance process could take two-three months. This is way too long especially when you think about how long it has taken us to get to this point. Plus it will apparently take NPA with their mine clearing equipment around one month to even arrive.

UNCHR have also given an indication that the current ‘temporary’ site will likely become a ‘permanent’ site on the basis that it does not flood every year. Thanks Captain Obvious! But what I've now learned is, that while it looks like UNHCR are providing tents to the new arrivals, they've actually laid down their tools and given up on the idea. They say they just don't have the capacity to construct enough tents for everyone quickly enough, and it will take them two months to put them all up; they even went as far to say they anticipate that the camp will only be there for two months (which is bollocks ... this is permanent until the flooding, baby!) while they clear the original site, so they're not going to bother. Apparently these tents cost $500 each, and its estimated it cost around $500 each to get them here - because they were airlifted by special charter plane from the Middle East. Huge expenditure. Why stop now? They surely aren't short of cash...


So the new arrivals from Al Fuj - which are coming on foot (2-3 days walking), by their own transport, or by UNHCR-contracted trucks - are just dumped on the new site and expected to set up their new life. Thanks a lot UNHCR. How about we give some people tents, but not all, because we don't have the capacity to build more and we've suddenly decided to take our ball and go home? That won't cause any conflict. It makes me so angry - on top of feeling sad - about the whole situation. If you are going to truck people in to a refugee camp, you should at least provide them with shelter. At least on arrival and registration they are getting a 'Non-Food Items' package including bucket, jerry can and 1 month of soap along with a food basket from WFP.

In the meantime, every man and his dog are dropping past our compound to find out what's happening, using our WiFi and our bathrooms, camping overnight and storing their stuff here while they build warehouses next door.


MSF are going to set up a clinic in Jamam. Thank goodness. This is one thing people definitely need; there is currently no health care here. WFP (the UN’sWorld Food Program) have started distributing food to the Jamam refugees, which is also helping. Food aid is coming in the form of baskets comprising cereals, pulses, vegetable oil and salt for each family. They are transporting food to Jamam from Malakal for 10,000 refugees (all plastered with USAID logos, mind you. Ahh the joys of visibility - everyone has to be seen to be doing something to keep their little donors happy). Both organisations are slowly building up a presence – not to mention loads of supplies – in our compound. There are bags of food, boxes of non-food items and piles of tarpaulins ready for distribution. WFP have built a big rub hall right next to our compound, and UNHCR are apparently going to do the same, and we are going to expand our compound to encapsulate these ginormous tent warehouses. 

The trucks parked out the front initially brought in supplies; now that they’re empty, they’ll be used to transport around a reported 25,000 refugees from the conflict, who are waiting on the border in Al Fuj for UNHCR transport to Jamam. We got recent reports of another 20,000 more that are following.

Oxfam has finally completed drilling the four boreholes in the Doro camp, three of which unfortunately failed due to lack of groundwater, and have rehabilitated 5 v. But now at least we can now focus on drilling to provide water for the Jamam refugees. We had also been undertaking public health promotion activities in Doro; but now IOM are taking over all activities in the Doro camp, so we can focus on Jamam. We’ve handed over the boreholes and Hygiene Promotion activities to them. Doro's population has now climbed to 28,000.

Here in Jamam, the population in both sites (old and new) has reached around 10,000. The borehole in our compound has been rigged up to a submersible pump, elevated water tank, and six-outlet tap stand for people to get drinking water during controlled opening hours. We have repaired three broken boreholes in Jamam , which both they and the refugees can access to get clean water. We've rigged up 6,000L and 10,000L bladders to tap stands in the new site, and are regularly trucking water from a haffir nearby to fill them, as well as chlorinating the water to make it safer for drinking. Even so, we are still only providing 5 litres of water per person per day at this rate, and it's not nearly enough. But it's something at least.

Much of our stash of emergency items has arrived, so we can start putting together the superstructures for latrines on the new site, and hand out plastic sheeting for people to use for their self-built latrines. People have already started digging their own latrine pits with the limited tools they have, and we are going to distribute more tools to further encourage this. Once they've got the ‘poles’ for the latrine structure – essentially trees stripped of their obsolete branches and leaves - we'll provide the plastic sheeting. The people here show a lot greater level of knowledge on hygiene and sanitation, and are apparently used to a higher level of sanitation, so they're much more motivated to build their own latrines and keep their environment clean.

Another positive in all of this is that it gives surety for Oxfam operations in Maban county. The long-term program’s funding finishes at the end March, and it wasn’t clear what would happen after this – would we continue to work in a difficult, remote, sparsely populated and unrewarding region? You bet we will now. There are 30,000 people about to land on our doorstep.

This means that the compound is getting a makeover. The perimeter fence is going to be fortified with wire (instead of the flimsy bamboo, which doesn’t even keep the pigs and goats out) and extended to encapsulate the newly-built UNHCR and WFP rub halls. A new tukul is being erected, giving us a shady spot to relax in the heat of the summer (our beautiful Niem tree, the current location for lunch-time relaxation and story telling, apparently loses all of its leaves and becomes infested with scorpions - nice). The girls’ tents are having a privacy fence (dubbed the Berlin Wall) built around them (not sure why the boys don’t need one) and a permanent volleyball court has been installed (volleyball and net provided by yours truly). We might even get some more permanent sleeping arrangements installed – ie a BUILDING. Wow! Seems this emergency response will become part of the furniture. And that's all it took for our compound to get an upgrade - a refugee emergency and a cashed-up Emergency Response team. F*ck the staff that have been living here for 3 years in tents.They don't deserve any proper accommodation, entertainment or security. They're just long-term program staff.

But at least we now have some clarity about the emergency response. For now, our long-term Public Health program still has a lot of work to do. Some of the team members have been diverted to assist with emergency activities, but the rest are still here, struggling on with construction of new boreholes, rehabilitating broken ones, training communities to manage and operate their infrastructure and undertaking hygiene promotion activities. It's all being done with very limited means, which are even more limited now with the Emergency Response team requiring additional resources. We need to make sure our activities don’t suffer amongst all the attention that the emergency response is getting.

Some time out in the sun

So, my Christmas in a nutshell:

I shared Christmas 2011 in Naivasha, Kenya with a 'white Kenyan' family. My good buddy Ollie, who also works in Rumbek, adopted me into her family for Christmas. It was really great to have a 'family Christmas', especially as I wasn't going to spend four days sitting on planes to get to Australia and back, only to have a week's time there. It just wasn't worth it.

We stayed with Ollie's sister Katie, her husband Alistair, their five dogs and pet pig (a massive but serene beast called Pancake, who looked especially glowing in her tinsel collar) - in their beautiful (and huge!) house, surrounded by yellow acacia trees, overlooking Lake Naivasha. The expansive grounds are fenced with electric wiring to keep the hippos out! I was visited in the mornings by 1) their dog Gypsy and 2) beautiful black-and-white colobus monkeys, who cheekily sneak into your room if you leave the balcony door open. We drove around in their old yellow LandRover 'bumblebee' with the top down, watching zebra and giraffes grazing on the roadside, visiting other Kenyan families and their stately homes for breakfasts, Christmas morning present-opening, dinners, tabletennis on the front lawn while African wildlife cruised past, Christmas carols with mulled wine ... and then messed about in boats on Boxing Day (including waterskiing on the Lake - wow!). It all made for a Christmas I won't forget in a hurry.

Ollie, Alistair's cousin Suzannah and I were then driven the ten hour journey to the Kenyan coast by their family's personal driver (!). We spent six days in a beautiful beachside house in Watamu, eating seafood, drinking Pimm's, sitting by the pool and walking on the beach.  in The social hub of Watamu is Ocean Sports Bar, where we spent the rest of our time socialising and people watching.

I think the entire population of white Kenyans goes to the coast for Christmas and New Years. I spent a lot of time meeting the friends that my new family members catch up with once a year. While it was generally fun, I found myself to be a real outsider in the natural habitat of the 'Kenyan Cowboy'. Everyone knew everyone, and were only interested in talking to their own. The usual conversations you have with new people were limited to 'who are you, and how do you fit in here?' and once this was out the way, I was practically ignored, and often had people turn their backs on me. I really struggled to 'fit in' - and in many ways I didn't want to in this cliquey environment. It was all so contrived; everyone spent their time gossiping about each other. But my new family members were great and made sure I enjoyed myself.

NYE we dined at the lavish buffet of Savannah restaurant, draining a bottle of Jaegermeister via shots at midnight, and then drank/danced the night away til 5am. It was really fun. The next day hangover wasn't though.... and New Year's Day is a bigger event in Watamu (at Ocean Sports of course) than NYE, so everyone was out in force from lunch time, drinking away in the hot afternoon sun. I couldn't stomach even a cold refreshing Pimm's!

That day Ollie and I unfortunately had to head back Nairobi ... some of us have to work! We caught the delightfully colonial overnight train back from Mombasa, which was a mammoth 17 hour journey (double the time to drive by car). But it was something I've always wanted to do, and while my hungover state meant that I didn't enjoy it as much as we could have, it was good fun. And we followed it up with a day of shopping in Nairobi and eating delicious food before flying back to Juba.

Ten days out of South Sudan was just what I needed ... but I'm still recovering!

I'm not looking forward to the post-holiday blues, and I've got loads to do in the field.

First stop: Jamam.